I was talking to a former co-worker (I have lots of them) this weekend and of course the topic of the economy came up and we were trying to determine when things would pick up and when we would be out of this thing. I said that six months from now we would most likely be in a much better place. I was then reminded that six months ago I said the same exact thing while unemployment has done nothing but tick upward. It's easy to lose credibility when you keep making the same prediction that never comes true - your sanity will quickly come into question.
We then started to discuss what this recession will do for the industry and how things will look when we emerge from the dark cavern. While it could look like a sea of cardboard boxes housing homeless construction professionals, the more likely situation is one of a construction industry where the stronger companies survived and the weaker companies did not. I don't know what the statistics are for the failure rate of AEC firms during the recession, but I would imagine that the Darwin effect will show some signs of presence in our industry. But the question is if this is a good thing?
Suppose many AEC firms do go under through this whole thing and when things pick up again, new companies will surely emerge in an effort to eat some of the pie. So we're left with an industry that has some of the old strong players and some new rookie firms. But the question remains, is this a good thing?
And the answer is - perhaps. I think we will get a very good look at what kind of firms are doing well in construction by taking note of who is still alive when this thing turns around. What will these companies look like? Will the ones that survive have the better marketing or bidding strategies, or will they just have the most money? Will the survivors have the higher ethical standard, or the more devious and crooked values?
The fact of the matter is that when construction is booming again like it was in 2000 and 2005, we will be looking at a much different construction industry. It could be better and it could be worse, but it will certainly be different. I personally think it will be better. Every organization will be involved in the sustainability and green building movement and since this is a movement that also involves the incorporation of higher ethics and social responsibility, companies will adopt some of these values (or at least pretend to).
Regardless of what the industry looks like, we will in the least have much more people working and this is certainly a good thing. But will we be in a more sustainable, ethical, productive, and cohesive industry and will the unethical and self interested be weeded out?
I hope so.
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